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Unclear future of WiMAX


2007-03-30

Despite the earlier announcements of telecom operators as well as projections presented by market analysts, WiMAX has so far had only a very limited impact on the Polish broadband market. The technology is still remaining at a very early stage of its development.

Broadband developing fast
On 20-21 March 2007, a conference entitled “Nie tylko WiMAX – nowe technologie i modele biznesowe w telekomunikacji” (Not only WiMAX – new technologies and business models in telecommunciations) took place in Warsaw. The event was organised by the Institute for International Research. The conference brought together representatives of the telecommunications branch in Poland, equipment providers, representatives of the market regulator as well as market research and consulting companies monitoring the situation in the industry.

PMR was a substantial partner during the event. We presented a detailed overview of the current situation on the Polish broadband market. The data presented during the event was based on the recent PMR report, “The Telecommunications market in Poland 2006-2009”.



The ISP market in Poland has a very significant growth potential. Bearing in mind the constantly increasing penetration of computers in households as well as the growing disposable income, we can expect that demand for internet services from the individuals segment will be going up over the next three to four years. In terms of net additions, around one million of new subscriptions may be added a year, at least until the market gets more saturated (in 2009).
Last, but not least, internet penetration in Poland is still relatively low, in comparison with most of the European countries. This means the market is not matured and it still has room for further growth.

WiMAX waiting
The broadband internet access market in Poland has been developing very fast in the last two years. At present, it is also experiencing some structural changes and reshufflings, chiefly due to the possibility of rendering broadband services by alternative providers, based on bitstream access (BA) agreements with TP SA.
According to Mariusz Walczuk, who is engaged in the WiMAX project in Netia, an actual opportunity of luring subscribers away from TP SA via BA contracts was one of the key reasons why the operator decided to diminish its WiMAX investment. Netia has now changed its priorities. WiMAX is being deployed, but the pace is slower than was initially planned. At present, the company has its base stations in 50 cities, however, the subscriber base does not exceed a few thousand.
It should be noted that despite such a limited activity, Netia is still the leader with regards to WiMAX investments in Poland. Other companies having licences to provide the services based on WiMAX have either started some small scale local projects (NASK, Crowley, Exatel) or they only claim they have nationwide plans but do not reveal them publicly (PTC, Clearwire).
There are also several operators deploying WiMAX networks on a local basis in the unlicensed band (SferaNet in Bielsko-Biala, Algo in Radom, Comdrev in Szczecinek, MS Connect in Chelm, PloNET in Plock and Telebeskid in Nowy Sacz). The largest and most successful of them is SferaNet. The company has so far attracted around 1,000 subscribers to its services, both from the individual and business segments. Tomasz Mrowiec, the general manager of SferaNet, told ICT Update Poland that his company had just rolled out its fourth base station, in Cieszyn, and presently has access to around 500,000 potential clients. According to Mr Mrowiec, WiMAX can really pay off but it should be perceived as a niche product, which can find its place on the Polish market, rather than as one in the main stream.
Tomasz Kulisiewicz, who was the chairman of the conference, suggested that the lack of a completely unified standard and high prices of access devices for end-users ($350-450 apiece) are among the obstacles for successful WiMAX deployment. Mr Mrowiec agrees that internet access via WiMAX is currently not a particularly cheap solution (in comparison with other access technologies). However, he argues that the advantage of WiMAX is the granted quality of service as well as the opportunity to reach those customers who do not live in the area of copper or CaTV networks.
A significant event for the WiMAX development in Poland was to be the 317 local district tenders for 3.6-3.8 GHz frequencies. Each of them was to grant the winner two duplex channels. The tenders were announced in 2005. Unfortunately, on 26 February 2007 the president of the Office of the Electronic Communications (UKE) issued a decision which declared all the tenders invalid for formal reasons. The decision was actually anticipated by the market, as UKE suggested such a move already a year ago.
According to Wiktor Sega, the managing director of the Department of Managing of Frequency Resources at UKE, the regulator is now planning to dispose the frequencies again. UKE is considering three scenarios. Besides repeating the tender in the form it was carried out in 2005, there is also a possibility of granting two nationwide licences instead, or opening one tender in each of the voivodships (or regions close to the voivodships’ border lines). The exact date of opening the new procedure is still not officially confirmed, however, the tender should start by the end of the first half of 2007.



PMR has recently updated its forecasts regarding the broadband market in Poland. In comparison with last year, we significantly downgraded the expected number of subscribers of WiMAX-based services in Poland over the next three years. The technology, however interesting and great its potential, is still underinvested and remains at a very early stage of its development. In Poland, currently only a few thousand subscribers access the internet using WiMAX devices. In general, more substantial investment in the construction of WiMAX networks cannot be ruled out, but they might appear at the turn of 2007 and 2008 at the earliest.
Pawel Olszynka
Head IT&Telecoms Analyst
PMR Publications
pawel.olszynka@pmrpublications.com


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